Poco a poco se crusa el mar

The Fed numbers report that came out today were described by CNN Money.com as "positive signs."

Jobless claims came in at 601,000 which while a big number at least was less than the prior report. In addition, retail sales showed a gain for the first time in three months.

Eveyone has his/her own "touch points" that they watch to try and read the economic tea leaves. One of the ones we have been using since 2003 is what we call the Recruiter Confidence Index.

For those who may not be familiar with the index, it is based on a monthly survey of executive search firms conducted by ExecuNet. Designed to forecast job growth at the executive level, a reading above 50 percent indicates recruiters expect the number of search assignments in the next six months will increase. Independent analysis of the RCI has confirmed it is a leading indicator for the executive employment market.

We post the index on our public website so if you are not a member, you can still check it out by clicking here.

Better still, we have recently twisted Mark Anderson's arm (Mark is ExecuNet's President and Chief Economist) to add some of his own commentary. If that's of interest you can hear what he has to say by clicking here or by doing a search on ExecuNet on YouTube.

All of which is to say, that while things like 600,000+ are still distrubingly a lot bigger than any of us would like, and a gain for retail sales for the first time in three months is hardly the hockey stick we all would wish for, at least it is one more sign that while we have a long, long way to go, maybe we are on the right path.

Let's hope.

Another Chicken & Egg Story

When it comes to the economy it has always been about confidence (or so the talking heads tell us). To hear them tell it, it is almost like a self-fulfilling prophesy. If we as consumers think things are getting better, they get better. If we start to lose confidence, then the charts go the other way.

Every day in the papers (what few are left) or on the crawling headlines on CNBC or MSNBC not to mention tons of tweets, we get the word:

Index on pending housing sales has gone up. (yea)

Oil prices are heading up again. (boo)

Fewer banks failed this month. (yea)

Number of people filing on-going unemployment claims declines for first time since January. (yea)

Unemployment rate jumps to 9.4% (boo)

and on it goes....

So what are we to believe? Beats the hell out of me, but in case you hadn't stumbled across it yet, and since everyone likes to look at employment as a key indicator, check this out:

Recruiter Confidence Climbs To Highest Level In Eleven Months

ExecuNet's Recruiter Confidence Index (RCI) surged 16 points higher in May, as the executive search industry's outlook for the employment market improved for the third consecutive month amid signs that economic conditions are stabilizing. The RCI now stands at its highest level since June 2008.

Introduced in May 2003, the Recruiter Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of executive search firms conducted by ExecuNet.

Designed to forecast job growth at the executive level, a reading above 50 percent indicates recruiters expect the number of search assignments in the next six months will increase. Independent analysis of the RCI has confirmed it is a leading indicator for the executive employment market

Yes, I know that the unemployment rate hit 9.4% and will likely keep going up for a while, nonetheless I am very encouraged by what our RCI is showing. Not just because it has made it back above 50, but more importantly because we firmly believe that it has proven to be a leading indicator as the copy above states.

I also know, based on our penchant for "instant" fixes, that there are still millions who are struggling to work through these tough times, and that the positive signs that we see (be they home-grown such as our own RCI data or whatever), the "good news" isn't going to happen fast enough.

Those who know me would probably tell you that I tend to be a half-empty type, but that is not my feeling at this point.

Manic? No. Euphoric? No. Feeling better? Yes. Press on, press on, press on!

Chicken Little Doesn't Know Everything

As we are all acutely aware, the stock market has been behaving like something you could only find at Six Flags. Given the hype that we get on a minute by minute basis via CNN or MSNBC or whatever oracle you use to get your news fix, it is a wonder that we have anyone left who can look forward to anything.

Okay, maybe that's going a bit too far. I don't know about you, but no matter how you get your news information these days, it really is pretty tough to stay optimistic. Not that those of us here at ExecuNet have any deeper insights into the future than anyone else, nonetheless, in our own small way, some time ago in an effort to try and help our members and readers get a somewhat different perspective on how all this stuff was likely to impact their professional work lives, we set up a place on the site so that senior executives who were interested in getting a 10,000 foot view of the Executive marketplace could check it out from time to time. Over the years it has proven to track very well against what other indices say is going on.

So, to in some way try to counteract recent headlines, be advised that from where we sit, the sky is not yet falling. Based on our monthly polls of both executives (Executive Employment Outlook) and recruiters (Recruiter Confidence Index) we still appear to be in pretty decent shape.

On the executive side which tends to be more conservative than the recruiting world, nearly half of those who responded (46%) were confident or very confident that the market for executives would improve of the next 6 months. That was up 14% from a year ago, and 8% higher than July. When we asked the recruiters the same question, 69% were confident regarding the executive employment outlook for the next 6 months, and while they were not up quite as much month over month as the execs were, they were still up 2% from the July survey.

The two monthly surveys I am citing here are not the only way in which we attempt to take the economic temperature, but over the years they have turned out to be pretty good indicators and we have no reason to think they will not continue to be, so for now anyway, we are still, as they say, bullish.

Anniversaries

My colleague Robyn Greenspan reminded me that today marks two years that she coerced me into doing a blog. Given that my normal attention span is something short of a nano second, I found it hard to believe that I have actually stuck with it, mostly because I still have an uncomfortable feeling in putting my thoughts on electronic paper when no one has asked for them. Just seems a bit presumptuous. I am much more comfortable when people ask me for my opinion rather than my just putting it out there as if it was too important not to.

Still, it has been and continues to me an interesting experience for me, and I have to admit, there are times when I feel better for having written some things down.

Anyway, Robyn, who in addition to heading up the publication of one of our bi-weekly newsletters called the Career Smart Advisor, also gets "rewarded" by being the author of our annual Executive Job Market Intelligence Report survey which she is just finishing up as we speak.

In addition to my blog, Robyn also reminded me that this year's EJMIR as we call it, also has an anniversary. Specifically its 15th. Hardly seems possible, but for sure it's true, and in preparing this year's report, Robyn shared a few interesting stats that have developed over the years.

While it won't be published in its final form for another few weeks, for those who are interested, here are a few early headlines:

Back in early 90s, healthcare, medical/pharmaceutical, high tech, environmental and manufacturing were identified by recruiters as the top five growth areas in executive hiring. In this latest 2007 report, three of the frontrunners have shifted positions, and environmental and manufacturing didn’t even make the top five list.

On the other hand, some of the issues that were at the forefront of executives’ job search journeys in 1992 are the same concerns they have today. Age discrimination and the length of time to find a new job are two issues that have been most prominent over the last 15 years. We’re happy to note considerable improvement since 1992.

In 1992 (remember that recession?) a 41- to 50-year old executive could expect a search time of roughly 14 months, but in 2007 this has shortened to 9 months for this age group. Fifteen years ago, executives aged 51 to 60 could expect a 16 to 22 month job search. Now, those in this age range report that it should take under 11 months before they land a new position.

The biggest — and most encouraging — progress lies in what we’ve learned about the 60+ executive. In 1992, this group of senior leaders expected it to take 27 months to find a new position — more than twice as long as what the 60+ group is now reporting on average about their expected time in job search.
I know there are some who would wonder why one would even comment on someone over 60 or even 55 for that matter in terms of making a career change thinking that over 60 and jobs is an oxymoron. Maybe it was close to that 15 years ago, but it isn't now, and certainly isn't given the current dearth of talent in many sectors. It isn't just about "adult supervision", it's about the retention of 'know how' and the passing of knowledge in order to remain competitive both domestically and globally.

If this were not the case, you would not be seeing the surfacing of such sites as: Retirementjobs; Jeff Taylor's new gig Eons, Senior Job Bank or Jobs4.0 which is the most recent of which I have become aware.

And from the more things change the more they remain the same department, every year in the survey we have asked the search world how long it takes them to fill an assignment. Interestingly enough, the answer has not changed over the course of the entire survey. The answer then and now is 3-4 months on average, technology notwithstanding.