Thursday, June 11, 2009

Poco a poco se crusa el mar

The Fed numbers report that came out today were described by CNN as "positive signs."

Jobless claims came in at 601,000 which while a big number at least was less than the prior report. In addition, retail sales showed a gain for the first time in three months.

Eveyone has his/her own "touch points" that they watch to try and read the economic tea leaves. One of the ones we have been using since 2003 is what we call the Recruiter Confidence Index.

For those who may not be familiar with the index, it is based on a monthly survey of executive search firms conducted by ExecuNet. Designed to forecast job growth at the executive level, a reading above 50 percent indicates recruiters expect the number of search assignments in the next six months will increase. Independent analysis of the RCI has confirmed it is a leading indicator for the executive employment market.

We post the index on our public website so if you are not a member, you can still check it out by clicking here.

Better still, we have recently twisted Mark Anderson's arm (Mark is ExecuNet's President and Chief Economist) to add some of his own commentary. If that's of interest you can hear what he has to say by clicking here or by doing a search on ExecuNet on YouTube.

All of which is to say, that while things like 600,000+ are still distrubingly a lot bigger than any of us would like, and a gain for retail sales for the first time in three months is hardly the hockey stick we all would wish for, at least it is one more sign that while we have a long, long way to go, maybe we are on the right path.

Let's hope.

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